Written Commentary
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices fell on a wave of profit taking and as some near-term supply worries eased; LME copper shed 0.9% to $14,360, while US prices fell 1.7% to $6.54. BHP and the supervisors’ union at the Escondida mine in Chile said they struck a deal, avoiding a strike at the world’s largest copper mine. Chilean miner Antofagasta on Thursday also reported a 7% rise in Q3 copper production and maintained its annual outlook despite the strike by workers at its Centinela mine. Copper mine disruptions for 2025-26 amount to 350,000-400,000 tons per year of contained copper, which equates to only 30%-50% of published disruption allowances. Disruption allowance is the percentage of mine production that is assumed to be lost due to unplanned events in a given year. While hits to production are well below the disruption allowance, tight stocks outside of the US are likely reinforcing the feeling of supply shortages, though the main catalyst in the move higher in copper is likely to be more on the speculative side
Zinc: Zinc fell 1% to $3,681.
Aluminum: Aluminum added 0.2% to $2,994.
Tin: Tin gave up 1.1% to $49,900.
Lead: Lead lost 0.4% to $1,888.
Nickel: Nickel slid 2.6% to $15,100.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: December gold recovered losses from September’s inflation data, rising over 1.7% as a drop in the dollar and Treasury yields led to better buying conditions. Market pricing for an October Fed rate hike rose sharply to 50% on the back of the CPI data, before falling back to 29% as Fed officials reiterated that the central bank will continue to assess incoming data. Worries about AI companies’ heavy debt burdens are also fueling flows into Treasuries today. September’s inflation data represents a two-layered inflation problem: higher energy costs and firmer services prices that are complicating disinflation. The Fed outlook remains as a broad headwind for gold. Recent survey evidence has continued to support the idea that economic growth remains robust, which gives ample reason to expect yields will move modestly higher over the next couple of months following their rapid rise recently. These dynamics are likely to contribute to a challenging environment for gold over the coming months.
Silver: December contracts are up 1.78% to $56.87.
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