Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Lower trade across the Ag space this AM ahead of the weekly export sales data. Energy prices are mixed and little changed with spot WTI crude oil up $.25 per barrel at $98.25, spot RBOB is down $.02 per gallon while HO is off $.01. Light rain will continue to linger in the Great Lakes region for another 24 hours while dry conditions across the Midwest over the next week should enable harvest progress to get back on track. Week 2 of the outlook shows above normal temperatures across the Midwest with above normal precipitation for the WCB and plain states, while below normal rainfall in the east. Below normal temperatures in Argentina and most of Brazil over the next week. Scattered showers in Brazil with heaviest amounts favoring the central growing areas. Rains in Argentina to favor the SW growing areas. The US $$ is moderately lower, falling to a 2-week low. US equity markets are mixed and little changed.
Corn:
Dec-26 is $.01 ½ lower at $4.76 ½ in 2-sided trade overnight. Prices fell to a new low for the week with initial support at last week’s low near $4.70 with secondary support at $4.57 ¼. Yesterday’s open interest fell 5.4k contracts. Conab is projecting Brazil’s 2026/27 production at 148 mmt vs. the USDA’s 139 mmt forecast. The BAGE pegs Argentine plantings at 35%, well ahead of their normal pace. Export sales are expected to range from 25-50 mil. bu. Until we see improved demand, the path of least resistance for corn is lower as speculators shed length while US farmers harvest a better-than-expected crop, at least according to the USDA
Soybeans:
Nov-26 beans are $.05 ½ lower at $12.57 ½ near session lows. Dec-26 meal is down $4.70 at $355.10 hitting a new low for the week while Dec-26 oil is down 15 points at 67.00, holding within yesterday’s range. Crush margins are down $.06 at $2.61 ½ bu. Open interest from yesterday’s trade was up 3.2k contracts in soybeans, 4k in soybean meal while down a couple hundred contracts in oil. Conab is projecting Brazilian production at 181.6 mmt vs. the USDA at 186 mmt. NOPA crush at 196 mil. bu. would suggest census crush at 201 mil. bu. the lowest since July-25. Crush will need to Ave. 234.5 mil. bu. per month Oct-26 through Aug-27 to reach the USDA forecast of 2.780 bil. bu. Crush in Iowa, the top processing state, was down 13.2% YOY. Oil stocks fell to only 1.053 bil. lbs. down 12.3% from the end of Aug-26 and the lowest since Nov-14. Export sales are expected to range from 18-44 mil. bu. of beans, 200-450k tons of meal and 0-10k tons of oil. D4 RIN’s generated in September at 788.1 mil. were up 10% from August.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.01-$.10 lower with CGO and KC the downside leaders. CGO Dec-26 is off $.09 ½ at $6.60 ½, slipping to a fresh 2 ½ month low with next support at the August low near $6.45. Dec-26 KC is $.08 lower at $7.05, still holding above this week’s low at $7.03 ¼. Dec-26 MIAX is down $.01 at $6.85. Wheat offers from ports in Romania and Bulgaria have jumped to 3-year highs this week as Russian drone attacks have damage or sunk vessels in their coastal waters. Western Australia production is expected to reach 10.9 mmt, up from last months forecast of 10 mmt, however below YA harvest at 13.3 mmt. US WW acres in drought held steady at 53%, while spring wheat acres in drought fell 1% to 38%. Export sales are expected to range from 10-20 mil. bu.
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