Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
London Wheat
A mixed and thin day for London wheat, with just over 270 lots trading across the exchange. May-27 took the lion’s share of the volume, edging up £1.00 to £216.50, while Nov-26 slipped £0.25 to £206.25 on 79 lots. As a result, the Nov-26/May-27 spread widened to £10.25.
European and US Wheat Markets
Matif again led the way higher, with Dec-26 adding €2.50 to €248.25 on over 51,000 lots and trading near the top of its €244.00-248.50 range. Chicago lagged behind, with Dec-26 SRW just 1 cent firmer at $6.70¼ after touching $6.63 earlier in the session, continuing to widen Paris’s premium over US wheat.
Black Sea Developments
Black Sea risk remains firmly in focus after drones struck two cargo ships off the Bulgarian coast earlier this week, one of which sank with 11 sailors missing; the fourth Bulgarian-linked vessel hit in a week. The attacks have taken the shine off President Trump’s announced ‘energy ceasefire’ between Russia and Ukraine, with Zelenskyy already accusing Moscow of continuing strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities.
Supply and Demand
On the supply side, IKAR trimmed its Russian wheat crop estimate by 0.5 mmt to 88.0 mmt and cut its 2026/27 export forecast by 1.5 mmt to 42.0 mmt. Demand also lent support, with Algeria reported to have bought around 600,000 tonnes in its latest tender, although details are yet to be confirmed. With US CPI data out today, the dollar will also be watched closely for any knock-on effect on US export competitiveness.
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