Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil was lower early Monday but inside Friday’s contract-high range. The fact that the market failed to rally off news that Ukraine struck an oil facilities in St. Petersburg, Russia over the weekend may indicate bullish exhaustion. News that President Trump signed an executive order on Friday waiving sanctions and tariffs on Russia that were supposed to go into effect under the Graham Act may have given market bulls some pause for thought as well. Egypt said it was ready to provide Saudi Arabia with support against the Houthis, which is viewed by some as a potential escalation event in the Iran war. Official data from China showed the oil throughput rate at refineries in September rose for a third straight month. Oil imports were down 21.5% year-
NATURAL GAS
December Natural Gas fell to its lowest level since October 5 early Monday as mild weather in the US countered the trend towards lower production this month. LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has fallen to 110.8 bcfd this month after record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September. LNG flows are down as well, but only marginally relative to the slowdown in production. Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants are running around 17.6 bcfd so far in October, down from 17.9 bcfd in September. At 3.567 trillion cubic feet on October 9, EIA storage is at its lowest level for this point in the season since 2022. The weather forecasts continue to show generally mild conditions that suggest a slow start to seasonal heating demand.
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