Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil was slightly lower early Thursday as traders balanced the attempt to reach some sort of negotiated solution to the US/Iran War against the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil plants this week. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that US Vice President Vance sent a letter to Iranian Security Council chief. Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war, but a senior Iranian official dismissed it as unacceptable. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said three tankers hit sea mines, exploded and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were lower early Thursday. Both have stagnated in recent weeks, even with crude oil making new highs last week. Peak driving season has passed, and the heating season is off to a slow start with the mild temps in the Northeast. The EIA report yesterday was bearish for gasoline and supportive for ULSD. Distillates stocks are the lowest for this point in the season in at least 35 years.
NATURAL GAS
After a two day bounce, December Natural Gas was lower early Thursday with a break below Monday’s low. The warmer than normal trend for the US will continues to usher in a slow start to the heating demand season, with the 6-10 and 8-14 day maps showing above normal temperatures across most if the US, with the exception of some normal trends for the southwest in the 6-10 day. US production has recovered during the second half of October after interruptions in pipeline flows earlier in the month.
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