Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 lower in choppy 2-sided trade while spreads were little changed. Dec-26 held support above LW’s low at $4.57 ¼. Weather remains favorable for the central and ECB while hot/dry conditions in the SW plains will be a drag on US yields. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest is 79% complete, vs. 88% YA. Conab is also expected to update their Brazilian production forecasts tomorrow. EU 26/27 imports as of Aug. 9th at 1.58 mmt are up 25.4% from YA. US crop ratings held steady at 61% G/E, in line with expectations. Composite ratings improved in only 4 states while declining in 10 and holding steady in 4. Overall ratings remain the lowest for the growing season while slightly below the historical average. 61% of the crop is in the dough stage, just ahead of the 5-year Ave. of 55%. 16% of the crop is dented vs. the 5-year Ave. of 12%. Current ratings would suggest an average US yield of 181.3 bpa with production at 15.855 bil. bu. vs. the current USDA forecast of 16.0 bil. bu. Since 1990 the USDA raised corn production in August 18 times, lowered it 17 times while unchanged 1 time.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans down $.09-$.11, meal was steady to $1 lower while oil was down $.01 lb. Bean and oil spreads were mixed while meal spreads firmed. Nov-26 soybeans fell to a 5-week low while closing below both its 50 and 100-day MA’s. Sept-26 meal fell to a 5-week low before recovering. The USDA announced a flash sale of 180k mt to the Philippines. Sept-26 oil rejected trade above its 100-day MA while falling back into its 66.50-70.00 range. Wheat and soybean oil led the losses in the Ag. space on rumors Ukraine and Russian officials would meet in Turkey to discuss the safe passage of vessels through the Black Sea. Markets will remain sensitive to peace talks in the Black Sea region. Crush margins improved $.02 at $2.77 ½ per bu. while bean oil PV slipped below 53%. The USDA announced a flash sale of 136k mt (5 mil. bu.) to China, still not catching up with rumored sales volume from last week. China’s Sinograin will auction off another 516k mt of soybeans tomorrow, their 3rd such auction as they look to free up storage ahead of US imports. US crop ratings fell 1% to 62% G/E, in line with expectations. Ratings are the lowest of the crop cycle while matching their historical average. Composite ratings improved in 11 states, while falling in 7. 93% of the crop is blooming, vs. 90% YA and 5-year Ave. of 91%. 74% of the crop is setting pods vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 69%. Current ratings would suggest an average yield of 53.2 bpa, unchanged from last week with production at 4.488 bil. vs. the USDA forecast of 4.475 bil. Since 1990 the USDA raised soybean production in August 14 times, lowered it 21 times while unchanged 1 time.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.10-$.14 lower in volatile 2-sided trade. CGO Sept-26 was down $.10 ¼ at $6.30 ¼, KC Sept-26 was $.14 ¼ lower at $6.99 ¾ while MIAX Sept-26 was down $.10 ¾ at $6.59 ¼. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry fears their grain export terminals may face a massive shortage of grain storage that could reach 11 mmt. SovEcon estimates Russia will ship 3-3.4 mmt of wheat in Aug-26, down from their historical average of 5 mmt. IKAR lowered their 2026 Russian production forecast .5 mmt to 90 mmt while lowering their export forecast .5 mmt to 44.5. The USDA is est. Russian production at 88.5 mmt with exports at 47.5. US WW harvest has hit the home stretch at 91% complete, in line with the 5-year Ave. Spring wheat ratings fell 4% to 51% G/E vs. expectations for a 2% decline. Composite ratings fell to their lowest level of the crop cycle however remain above their 5-year Ave. 24% of the crop has been harvested vs. 5-year Ave. of 19%. Ukraine is reported looking to rail grain through neighboring Moldova to the Romanian port Constanta to avoid dangerous shipping lanes in the Black Sea. EU soft wheat exports at just over 1 mmt are down 57% from YA. Since 2010 the USDA raised US WW production 10 times while lowering it 6.
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