Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower while spreads were steady to weaker. Dec-26 futures traded to a new low for the week however held support above LW’s low at $5.23 ¼. December continues to hold within last Friday’s range. Corn bulls remain hopeful the Trump/Xi summit next week will result in China’s purchase of US corn. Crop ratings in France fell to another new all-time low at only 23% G/E, well below the 62% YA. Harvest had reached 27% vs. only 5% pace from YA. The BAGE left their 25/26 Argentine production forecast unchanged at 64 mmt, vs. USDA 63 mmt est. They report 26/27 plantings have reached 11%. This afternoon’s COF report is expected to show feedlots held 11.279 mil. head of cattle as of Sept. 1st, up 1.8% from YA. Placements in Aug-26 are expected to be down 3.2% from YA while marketings off 3.9%. Prices remain range bound with fresh bullish news lacking.
SOYBEANS
Prices were moderately lower across the complex with beans down $.15-$.17, meal was off $9-$14 while oil was down nearly $.01 per lbs. Spreads were weaker all around. Nov-26 beans held support right at $13 bu. with next support at this week’s low at $12.92. Fibonacci support for Oct-26 meal is at $343.60. Oct-26 oil traded to a 3-week low on early weakness. US weather has been rinse and repeat all week with heavy rain across the N. Midwest slowing crop maturation and delaying early harvest progress. Hot/dry across the S. Midwest, beneficial for harvest activities. This pattern looks to hold into the middle of next week. Crush margins plunged $.22 to $2.36 bu. Chinese demand, slower acreage expansion in Brazil along with weather threats from a the “super El Nino” provide underlying support to the soybean complex. Record speculative length is limiting further price appreciation in the short term. The trade remains hopeful that US/China will drop reciprocal tariffs at next week’s Trump/Xi summit in Washington. I’d estimate Chinese purchases are between 13-13.5 mmt. China’s Sinograin announced they would auction off another 543k mt of soybeans out of Govt. storage on Sept. 22nd. Yesterday’s EPA data showed Aug-26 D4 RIN generation at only 693 mil., down 13% from July-26 while falling below the pace needed to reach the EPA mandates. D4 RINS have leveled off near $2.10, well below the summer peak at just over $2.50. Despite the pullback in RIN values, biodiesel and renewable diesel profit margins have jumped on higher diesel prices combined with the pullback in soybean oil prices.
WHEAT
Prices range from $.10 to $.13 lower. CGO Dec-26 was down $.12 ¾ at $7.14 ¼, KC Dec-26 was $.10 ¾ lower at $7.83 ¾, while Dec-26 MIAX was $.11 ¼ lower at $7.41 ¼. Better prospects for rain in the US plains has weighed on prices. US WW acres in drought fell 2% this week to 57%. Spring wheat and durum acres in drought both down 1% to 56% and 39% respectively. US exports are down 31% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. We’ll need to see sales pick up soon or the USDA will have no choice but to lower their export forecast. Sources report volume offers for Pakistan’s 750k mt tender totaled only 656k mt. Pakistan asked participants to lowest offers to match the lowest offers that ranged from $348.80 to $353/mt CF depending on the port of entry. At midday wire services reported other participants agreed to lower their offers to match the lowest. Russia claims their Arctic port in Murmansk will start handling grain in Oct-26 as they continue to reroute exports away from the Black Sea.
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