Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.08-$.09 lower, closing near session lows while spreads were steady to easier. Dec-26 violated support at its 100-day MA at $4.71 ¾ before bouncing at the close. Next support is the August low at $4.57 ¼. Feed grains pulled back as wire services reported Ukraine offered Russia a ceasefire on civilian targets in the Black Sea. No known response from Russia. Higher production forecasts from SA also provided a reason for long speculative traders to pare back holdings in corn. The RGE raised their Argentine production forecast 2.5 mmt to 70.5 mmt while reporting harvest has reached 75%, delayed due to a wet and warm July. The USDA kept their forecast unchanged at 63 mmt. Conab raised their Brazilian production est. 1.25 mmt to 143, above the USDA revised estimate of 140 mmt. Higher supplies from SA may prevent US sales from reaching the upwardly revised USDA forecast, despite the growing use of corn for ethanol production in Brazil. US exports at 52 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments have reached 3.445 bil. bu. up 24% YOY vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 18%. New crop commitments have reached 416 mil. bu. falling behind the YA by 24%. Noted buyers of new crop were unknown – 10 mil. with 16 mil. to Mexico. Despite massive speculative buying of over 55k contracts yesterday, O.I. was near unchanged. Yesterday’s USDA WASDE data showed stocks among global exporters falling to only 9.5% of usage in the 2026/27 MY, the lowest in 3 years.
SOYBEANS
Prices across the complex were mostly lower. Beans ranged from $.01 higher to $.03 lower, meal was $1 lower while oil was down 30-40 points. Inside day for Nov-26 beans as prices hold above MA support between $11.72 ½ – $11.75. Powerful storms and heavy rain continue to ride up and around the high pressure ridge anchored in the S. Plains. This pattern looks to extend into early next week. Hot and dry in the SW corn belt, S. plains and Delta region will continue to advance crops toward maturity. Conab lowered their Brazilian production forecast .1 mmt to 180.5 mmt, in line with the revised USDA estimate. The BAGE is forecasting 2026/27 Argentine production at 48 mmt, below the USDA est. of 50 mmt. US Gulf FOB offers are running $.30-$.45 bu. below Brazilian offers stretching out to year end. China continues to rack up purchases ahead of Chinese leader Xi expected visit to Washington DC in 6 weeks. Soybean sales at 68 mil. were at the upper end of expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.536 bil. bu. are down 18% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 20%. 25/26 MY shipments to China have reached 12.36 mmt while new crop purchases of 1.446 mmt take commitments to 4.56 mmt (167 mil. bu.). There are another 3.598 mmt (132 mil. bu.) to unknown. In addition, the USDA also announced a flash sale of 125k mt to China. New crop commitments jumped to 372 mil. bu., a 4-year high while up 115% YOY. Meal sales at 218k tons were at the low end of expectations. Old crop commitments are up 14% YOY vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 13%. Oil commitments fell to 822 mil. lbs. down 66% vs. the revised USDA forecast of down 61%. If China does purchase 25 mmt of US soybeans, I look for US exports to exceed 1.7 bil. bu. vs. the current USDA forecast of 1.66 bil. Stocks among global exporters held at 18.5% of usage for the 2026/27 MY, the lowest in 13 years.
WHEAT
Prices were steady to $.04 lower across the 3 classes closing roughly $.15 off session highs. CGO Sept-26 was unchanged at $6.52 ¾, KC Sept-26 is $.00 ¼ lower at $7.20 ½ while MIAX Sept-26 was down $.03 ¾ at $6.69 ¼. The USDA took a very measured approach in lowering Ukraine/Russia exports only 2.5 mmt, largely offset by Canada and Kazakhstan up 1 mmt each. As expected, no changes to the US 26/27 exports despite being down by over 30% YOY. A German association of farm coop’s, DRV, lowered their 26/27 wheat production forecast by 1.5 mmt to 20.55 mmt given this summer’s heatwave and drought. Export sales at 9 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments at 275 mil. are down 32% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. Stocks among global exporters rose to 17.8% of usage for the 25/26 MY, up from 17.2% in July, while 26/27 rose to 15.5%, up from 14.8%. These higher stocks directly attributed to building inventories in Russia and Ukraine due to the logistical issues.
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