Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were unchanged in 2-sided trade while spreads were little changed despite today being day 1 of the Goldman roll. The USDA announced a flash sale of 286k mt (11.3 mil. bu.) to Mexico. Roughtly 90% was for 27/28 MY with 10% for 26/27. Dec-26 seems to be building solid support just below $4.60. The BAGE reports Argentine harvest has reached 74% vs. the Ave. in the mid-80’s. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry expects a significant reduction in grain shipments in the 26/27 MY due to continued Russian missile attacks. Corn exports are expected to reach only 14 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 23 mmt. While ports remain open, shipping companies are reluctant to allow vessels to enter the region. France’s Ag. Ministry is forecasting total grain production at 46.1 mmt, down 5.2% from YA due to this year’s drought. Corn production is expected at only 9 mmt, down 35% YOY. Efforts to expand US corn demand by allowing the year-round sale of E-15 have been unsuccessful as the Senate Ag. Committee failed to pass their purposed farm bill. Committee chairman John Boozman, Rep. Senator from Ark., maintains he is committed to advancing the measure. A Reuters poll shows analysts expected US 25/26 stocks to slip just under 2.0 bil. in next Wed. WASDE report, down from 2.020 bil. in July. US 2026 production is expected to slip 66 mil. bu. to 15.934 bil. with stocks down 65 mil. to 1.725 bil.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans down $.01-$.02, meal was $2-$3 lower while oil was up 45-50 points. Spreads were mixed and little changed across the complex. Nov-26 continues to build support near its 100-day MA at $11.71. Crush margins were little changed at $2.71 ½ bu. Cash sources suggest China purchased another 10 cargoes of US soybeans yesterday after purchasing 10-15 on Wednesday as they continue to work toward reaching their 25 mmt commitment. Chinese leader Xi is expected to visit Washington DC in 7 weeks. Flash announcements still lag rumored sales with the USDA announcing the sale of 238k mt (8.7 mil. bu.) to China. Anec reports they expect Brazil will ship 9.74 mmt of soybeans in Aug-26, up 20% YOY. China imported 11.48 mmt of soybeans from all sources in July-26, down 1.6% YOY. YTD purchases at 61.5 mmt are up just under 1% from YA. China’s Sinograin announced they will auction off another 516k mt of soybeans on Aug. 12th, their 3rd such auction in recent weeks as they look to free up storage ahead of US arrivals. The Reuters poll shows traders expect 25/26 ending stocks to slip 9 mil. bu. to 321 mil., in line with mine 320 mil. bu. estimate. Minimal changes expected for new crop with production virtually unchanged with stocks off 6 mil. to 304 mil. bu.
WHEAT
Prices closed $.08-$.14 higher, pretty much recovering yesterday’s losses while holding within yesterday’s range. CGO Sept-26 was $.08 ½ higher at $6.39 ¾, KC Sept-26 was $.14 ¼ higher at $7.14, while MIAX Sept-26 was up $.08 ½ at $6.79 ½. Last month’s surge to 2-3 year highs was driven by logistical issues, not by supply issues, something that a peace agreement could quickly solve. So far global importers have not chased higher alternative sources, certainly not the US with exports off 30% YTD. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry fears their 26/27 wheat exports could fall to 8.3 mmt, less than half of their earlier est. of 17.6 mmt and below the USDA forecast of 14.5 mmt. Ukraine has requested 220 mil. Euro’s from the EU to help support small and medium sized farmers. All US wheat production is expected to fall 11 mil. to 1.525 bil. Winter wheat production is expected to fall 9 mil. to 981 mil. while the ave. guess for spring wheat is 468 mil. down 7 mil. from last month. Stocks are expected to slip 7 mil. to 715.
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