Written Commentary
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices on the LME gained 0.5% to $14,150 following its strong performance last week as support from tight inventories outside the US and reduced supply fears underpin prices; COMEX prices are up 0.25% at $6.61. Total available copper stocks in LME warehouses are just over 101,00 metric tons to mark the lowest level since January, as flows to the US continue on worries of possible import tariffs. Available Chinese copper alongside stocks from other key suppliers like Chile, Zambia and the DRC have also posted declines in the LME warehouse system. Falling inventories outside the US and hopes that US-Iran talks will open the Strait have up bullish conditions for the metal despite the uncertainty over the status of negotiations, though the uncertainty over those dynamics could leave copper vulnerable to a modest pullback if the risks materialize. Strong demand for AI infrastructure buildout and supportive Q2 results from several large AI-names have also lifted sentiment and expectations that the new technology will support longer-term demand prospects.
Zinc: Zinc added 0.4% to $3,720.
Aluminum: Aluminum was up 1.2% at $3,320. Supply worries are proving friendly to prices with available stocks at their lowest level since April 2025, while supplies on the SHFE have been reduced following a 13,000-ton withdrawal last week.
Tin: Tin climbed 1.2% to $56,150.
Lead: Lead gained 0.7% to $1,900.
Nickel: Nickel edged down 0.2% to $16,970.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: December gold contracts fell lower overnight but remain near their highest level since mid-June in the wake of July’s hiring report. Unresolved US-Iran tensions are still capping gold’s upside as the threat of higher energy prices and inflation are underpinning the dollar and higher Treasury yields despite a drop following Friday’s data. A benign CPI print could help ease fears about Fed Chair Warsh and the central bank being dovish, which should also help bring longer-end rates lower and flatten the curve. Despite the futures market shift, the Fed likely remains biased toward higher rates. While the July report and the downward revisions to prior months has reignited some concerns over labor market stability, Fed officials have in recent months have indicated that the breakeven pace of job gains is fairly lower than in previous years. Gold could continue to breakout if Treasury yields continue to retreat and Fed tightening expectations wane, though that move remains depended on this week’s inflation data. Crude has maintained a range near $82bbl, reviving some inflation sensitivity though markets have largely welcomed the current levels as less inflationary than at previous levels during the war.
Silver: September contracts are up 1% to $64.15.
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