ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa was lower early Thursday and managed to fall to its lowest level since mid-June. The market also broke below the 100-day moving average for only the second time since May. Demand concerns appear to be dominating concerns about El Nino and the west African crop, especially in the wake of news this week that Lindt & Spruengli had cut its 2026 sales forecast for the second time this year, citing higher prices for its products and the heatwaves in Europe this summer that lowered demand. Third-quarter grind data for Europe, Asia and North America are due to be released on October 15.
COFFEE
December Coffee was lower early Thursday following a spike higher on Wednesday that took the market to its highest level in three weeks. The market may have found some support on Wednesday over concerns about Brazilian bean quality issues after the co-op Cooxupe warned its farmers that it would reject beans that show a problem caused by excess humidity. It had been suspected that above-average rains during the harvest this year caused bean excessive bean droppage and it also affected drying. The market may have also gotten oversold on the Brazilian export theme. ICE certified arabica stocks have started to climb again, increasing 4,933 bags on Wednesday to 260,654, their highest since August 3, and this shows supply tightness continuing to ease. The Vietnam coffee market remained largely muted this week as old-crop inventories were largely depleted with new crop supplies not expected until November.
COTTON
December Cotton extended its selloff early Thursday to its lowest level since July 17. Even though yesterday’s USDA grain stocks numbers did not include cotton, traders were unnerved by the steep selloff in corn. The US dollar has reached its highest level since May 2025, and this undermines US export prospects. It appears that only a strong export sales report can support the market now. Last week’s export sales report showed net cotton sales for the week ending September 17 at 230,517 bales for the 2027/28 (current) marketing year and 122,994 for 2028/29 for a total of 353,511. This was up from 77,391 the previous week and the highest since the marketing year began in August.
SUGAR
March Sugar was higher early Thursday but inside the range of the previous six sessions. The market has been chopping around as it consolidates its recent gains. There appears to be enough concern about global production and El Nino to support the market, even with a significant net long held by the funds. World Weather Inc. says central and southern Brazil will see frequent and sometimes heavy rain through the next two weeks. The rain will be beneficial initially in central and northern areas while southern areas already have saturated or nearly saturated soil and will see poor conditions for fieldwork along with some flooding. Traders are concerned that the heavy rains will cause further problems with cane harvest and crushing and perhaps bring an early end to the 2026/27 season.
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