Global Ag News for Oct 22.24

TOP HEADLINES

Indonesia Reaffirms Plan to Raise Biofuel Mix to 40% in Jan.

Govt also preparing to boost palm oil production to eventually raise palm-based biodiesel mix to 50% or B50, Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman tells reporters on Tuesday.

• Govt expects B50 preparations completed in 2026; program will need additional 5.3m tons of palm oil
• Govt plans to expand rice fields by 750,000 ha to 1m ha next year

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 1/2; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil up 0.68.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil up 1.25.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, down 11 in HRS; Corn is down 14 1/2; Soybeans down 85; Soymeal down $25.10; Soyoil down 0.24.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.4% in SRW, down 9.8% in HRW, down 15.6% in HRS; Corn is down 12.9%; Soybeans down 24.1%; Soymeal down 18.0%; Soyoil down 10.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 4 yuan; Soymeal down 7; Soyoil up 56; Palm oil up 106; Corn down 9 — Malaysian Palm is up 85.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 85 ringgit (+1.98%) at 4384.

There were changes in registrations (-30 Soymeal). Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 146 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 18 were: SRW Wheat up 10,511 contracts, HRW Wheat up 7,094, Corn up 1,277, Soybeans down 4,930, Soymeal down 3,455, Soyoil down 2,934.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday

 

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday.

 

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

 

Midwest: West: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above normal west and near to below normal east Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 21 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 14,000 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: Exporters sold 169,926 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico; 130,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to South Korea; and 198,192 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a daily reporting system. All are for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
• SOYBEAN SALES: Exporters sold 116,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations, the USDA said, adding that another 264,000 metric tons of U.S. soy had also sold to unknown buyers. Both are for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea is believed to have purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in a private deal without issuing an international tender
• CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 125,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy an estimated 340,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 metric tons of feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1m Tons of Corn for Export, 2.434m of Soybeans

In week ending Oct. 17, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,000k tons vs 507k the previous wk, 472k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 2,434k tons vs 1,907k the previous wk, 2,629k a yr ago
• Wheat: 268k tons vs 380k the previous wk, 169k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 17

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Oct. 17 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 1.69m tons of the 2.43m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Japan led in wheat

 

Brazil C-S Summer Corn Planting 52.9% Done as of Oct. 18: Safras

Pace of planting in Brazil‘s Center-South region compares with 58.8% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 54.5%, according to a report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

Planting is 90.1% completed in Rio Grande do Sul area, 80.2% in Santa Catarina, 82.3% in Parana, 19% in Sao Paulo, 6.5% in Minas Gerais, 16% in Mato Grosso do Sul and 2.1% in Goias/Distrito Federal

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Planting 18% Done as of Oct. 17: AgRural

Compares with 8% a week earlier and 30% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

Summer corn planting is at 48% in Brazil’s Center-South region, compared with 41% a week earlier and 46% a year before

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Producers focus on the weather in Brazil

A few months ago, the low volume of rains concerned wheat producers in the South Brazil, mainly from Paraná state. Now, excessive rainfall may be negative to the crops, which are currently in ending stage. In 2023, Paraná was the largest producer in Brazil and, this year, the state may be the second largest.

Until now, in Paraná, 79% of the area had been harvested, according to information from Seab/Deral. In Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, growers are also focused on the weather conditions, and harvesting activities are at the beginning, totaling 1% of the area, in both states.

PRICES – According to data from Cepea, between October 11 and 18, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 0.7% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.24% in Paraná, but decreased 0.61% in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations dropped 0.7% in Paraná and in Santa Catarina and 0.53% in Rio Grande do Sul and São Paulo. Dollar quotations increased 1.2% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.691 on October 18.

CROPS – Conab estimates that the Brazilian wheat production may total 8.263 million tons in 2024 crop, 2.1% up compared to the previous season.

 

Russian Wheat Crop Seen Shrinking for Third Year on Dry Weather

Russia’s wheat production is seen shrinking for a third year after a lack of rain has delayed plantings in the world’s top grower.

Wheat production in 2025 is expected to total 80.1 million tons, according to consultancy SovEcon. That would make it the smallest harvest since the 2021-22 season, putting pressure on already tight global stockpiles.

Bumper crops from the country helped ease supply concerns in recent years after other key growing regions, such as the US and Europe, saw poor production. The dominance of cheap Russian crops in the market helped to lower prices from record highs in 2022 and continues to weigh on global futures markets.

Dry weather, however, has significantly delayed planting efforts in Russia, which is expected to lower both the cultivated area and reduce crop yields in the upcoming season.

Although the production forecast comes nine months before crops will be harvested, adverse conditions could continue to strain development.

“The poor condition of winter wheat raises concerns about an increased risk of winter kill,” wrote Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon.

 

Russia’s IKAR consultancy estimates 2025 wheat crop at 80-85 mln t

Russia’s IKAR agricultural consultancy on Tuesday issued its first estimate for Russia’s 2025 wheat crop at 80-85 million metric tons.

 

Indonesia August Palm Oil Exports Rise to 2.38M Tons: Gapki

The nation’s palm oil exports rose to 2.384m tons in August, from 2.241m tons in July, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output rose to 4.378m tons, from 3.961m tons in July
• Palm oil stockpiles fall to 2.450m tons, from 2.513m tons in July
• Palm oil domestic consumption rose to 2.060m tons, from 2.030m tons in July
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption was 979,000 tons
• Jan.-Aug. results:
  • Palm oil output at 34.52m tons, including 31.51m tons CPO
  • Domestic consumption at 15.57m tons, including 7.42m tons for biodiesel
  • Exports at 19.69m tons

 

US Egg Production Fell 2.2% in September From Year Ago: USDA

The US produced 8.92b eggs in September vs 9.12b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.

• Output of table eggs fell 2.6% y/y to 7.65b
• Hatching eggs up 0.4% to 1.27b

 

US Milk Production Rose 0.2% Y/y in September, USDA Says

Agency releases report on website.

Output for the 24 major-producing states was 17.48b lbs, 31m more than in September of last year

• Milk per cow averaged 1,966 lbs, a 0.4% increase from last year
• Estimated output for all the US rose 0.1% y/y to 18.194b lbs

 

 

 

 

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