Written Commentary
Digesting latest impasse in US/Iran negotiations, China Trade and
inflation, UK KPMG/REC Employment survey, awaiting US Existing Home Sales
and speech by BoE’s Greene in muted start to very busy week.
inflation, UK KPMG/REC Employment survey, awaiting US Existing Home Sales
and speech by BoE’s Greene in muted start to very busy week.
- China trade data underlines continued strength in external but
sluggish domestic demand; CPI and PPI surge all energy and commodity
related, core CPI little changed - Week Ahead: Political events still in the driving seat, but also plenty
of major data in US and UK, many central bank speakers, raft of energy
and agriculture monthly reports
EVENTS PREVIEW
The new week gets underway with the US and Iran still no closer to reaching some form of agreement, which given the gaping chasm between the two sides’ negotiating positions and deep mutual mistrust should come as no surprise. This was always going to be a protracted process. As long as the military conflict remains in abeyance, bar the odd skirmish, the fact that they continue to negotiate, even if only through Pakistan as an intermediary, this is basically positive, though the risk of a renewed confrontation, due to impatience and frustration, remains a real on. It does however, mean that this will likely dominate the meeting between Trump and Xi this week. Meanwhile, in the UK all eyes are on PM Starmer’s ‘policy reset’ speech, as he tries desperately to hang on to his position, after last week’s wholesale drubbing in the council, and Scottish and Welsh parliament elections. As has now been the case for almost a decade, the sad fact is that there appears to be no alternatives either within the ruling Labour party or any of the other political parties, who could demonstrate qualities of a genuine statesman, with clearly defined policies and the tenacity to turn words into action, and gradually reunite or at the very least build a popular majority in the UK’s now very fractured political landscape.
Otherwise, there are China’s trade and inflation data and the UK KPMG/REC Employment survey to digest, ahead of US Existing Home Sales, a speech by BoE’s Greene and the start of US Treasury Secretary Bessant’s 3-day visit to Japan. China’s Trade data again easily beat expectations, with exports still benefitting from robust external demand, above all from AI related investment. The 20% m/m drop in crude oil imports should have come as no surprise given the surge in prices, and follows a very similar pattern in China’s gas imports in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and offers some relief for Asian energy importers in terms of securing supplies. But as India PM Modi’s comments at the weekend, exhorting the public to limit fuel use and travel, work from home and avoid imports highlighted, high prices ride roughshod over any consideration of supply availability. As for China’s CPI and PPI, the larger-than-expected jump was almost wholly due to energy prices rather than signalling any uptick in domestic demand, which at best remains tepid, with the fall in food prices helping to mitigate energy and commodity price pressures, with little change in core CPI at 1.2% y/y underlining sluggish domestic consumption.
The Week Ahead focal points:
- Middle East conflict as US rejects latest Iran ‘deal’ proposals, Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing, Bessant trip to Japan
- US CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production; UK Q1 GDP, Industrial Production, Index of Services, REC/KPMG Employment; China Trade, CPI, PPI, Credit Aggregates; Germany ZEW; India CPI, WPI, Trade; Australia Q1 Wages
- Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ speakers
- EIA, IEA and OPEC monthly Oil Market Reports; USDA WASDE, China CASDE, France AgriMer Crops Report, Brazil CONAB Corn & Soybean and Unica Sugar production, Chile Copper Production, raft of conferences includes Geneva GrainCom and London CRU Aluminium
There are just 9 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include: 3i Group, ABN Amro Bank, ACS Actividades de Construccion & Servicios, Adnoc Drilling, Adnoc Gas, Alibaba Group Holding, Allianz, Applied Materials, AST SpaceMobile, Banco BTG Pactual, Banco do Brasil, Bank Hapoalim BM, Barrick Mining, Bayer, Bharti Airtel, Bridgestone, Brookfield, CEZ, Cisco Systems, Compass Group, Constellation Energy, Constellation Software Canada, Credicorp, Daiichi Life, Daiichi Sankyo, Daikin Industries, Deutsche Telekom, Dubai Electricity & Water Authority, E.on, Ecopetrol, EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg, Fox, Franco-Nevada, Fujikura, George Weston, Hannover Re, Hochtief, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Hon Precision, Honda Motor, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hydro One, Imperial Brands, Inpex, Itausa, Japan Post, Japan Post Bank, JD, JSW Steel, JX Advanced Metals, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, KBC Group, KDDI, Kioxia, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology, Manulife Financial, Merck, Mirae Asset Securities, Mitsubishi Estate, Mitsubishi Heavy, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial, Munich Re, National Grid, Nebius Group, Nippon Steel Corp, Nu Holdings Cayman Islands, Olympus, Orix, OTP Bank Nyrt, Panasonic, Petroleo Brasileiro SA – Petrobras, Power Corp of Canada, PTT, Qnity Electronics, Recruit, Resona, RoboSense Technology, RWE, Samsung Life Insurance, Saudi Arabian Oil (aka Aramco), Sea, Siemens, Siemens Energy, Simon Property Group, Singapore Airlines, SMC, Snam, SoftBank, SoftBank Group, Sumitomo Electric, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Sumitomo Realty & Development, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Talanx, Telefonica, Telefonica Brasil, Tencent, Venture Global, Verbund, Viking Holdings, Vodafone.
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