Written Commentary
Written by Marc Ostwald, ADMISI’s Global Strategist & Chief Economist
The new week’s schedule is replete with surveys, as is typical for the fourth week of the month, including the G7 flash PMIs, Germany’s IFO Business Climate and numerous other Business and Consumer Confidence measures, but the advance estimates of Q4 GDP in the US, South Korea and Spain will inevitably get top billing. Japan’s Tokyo and Australian CPI, UK PPI feature in terms of inflation data, while the US also has monthly Personal Income/PCE, Durable Goods Orders, New and Pending Home Sales and Goods Trade Balance. On the central bank front, the Fed enters its purdah period ahead of the next FOMC meeting, the Bank of Canada is expected to hike a further 25 bps to 4.50% with all eyes on whether it signals a pause. Elsewhere 100 bps rate hikes are seen in Colombia (to 13.0%) and Nigeria & Pakistan (both 17.0%), 50 bps in South Africa (7.50%), and rates are seen on in Chile, Hungary and Sri Lanka. In the commodity space, Brazil’s Unica is due to publish its monthly Sugar S&D report, while the USDA reports on US Cattle, Meat and Milk inventories, the EU issues the MARS Crop Bulletin, and there is also the Paris Grains Conference, The Lunar New Year holidays in China (all week) and East & SE Asia will thin trading for much of the week, while the govt bond auction schedule is dominated by the US ($120 Bln 2, 5 & 7-yr & $24 bLn 2-yr FRN), with Germany selling small volumes of 2, 16 & 23-yr, Netherlands 331-yr and Japan 40-yr, while Italy sells 2-yr and Inflation-Linked.
There are 88 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings this week, and across the globe Bloomberg News suggest the following are likely to be among the highlights: 3M, Abbott Laboratories, ADM, American Airlines, American Express, Ameriprise Financial, ASML Holding, AT&T, Atlas Copco, ADP, Blackstone, Boeing, Canadian National Railway, Capital One Financial, Charter Communications, Colgate-Palmolive, Comcast, Crown Castle, CSX, Danaher, Diageo, DR Horton, Elevance Health, Freeport-McMoRan, General Dynamics, General Electric, Haliburton, HCA Healthcare, Intel, IBM, Intuitive Surgical, Johnson & Johnson, Kimberly-Clark, KLA, Lam Research, Lockheed Martin, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Marsh & McLennan, Mastercard, NextEra Energy, Nokia, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, Nucor, Progressive, Raytheon Technologies, SAP, ServiceNow, Sherwin-Williams, SE Banken, Southwest Airlines, Texas Instruments, Travelers, Union Pacific, US Bancorp, Valero Energy, Verizon Communications, Visa, Volvo, Xcel Energy.
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