ADMIS News
COTTON
December Cotton was holding Wednesday’s gains early Thursday on ideas that US exports could benefit from the Democratic win by reducing tariffs and/or a lower currency. The dollar index fell to its lowest level since September 30 on Wednesday but bounced off that low overnight. This morning’s export sales report improved on last week’s report and was the strongest in seven weeks, with net cotton sales for the week ending October 29 at 277,522 bales, all for the 2026/27 (current) marketing year. This was up from 254,833 the previous week and the highest since September 17. Cumulative sales for 2026/27 have reached 5.943 million bales, up from 4.961 million at this time last year but below the five-year average of 6.860 million. Sales have reached 51% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 58% for this point in the marketing year. Shipments totaled 137,782 bales, down from 160,762 the previous week. The largest buyer by far was Vietnam at 200,516 bales, followed by Pakistan at 30,654 and Turkey at 18,290. After leading the pack last week, China was #16 at 87 bales.
SUGAR
March Sugar was higher early Thursday but still in the lower end of Tuesday’s big selloff. News this week that Indian sugar production was off to a very strong start in October may have shocked the market after all the concern about El Nino resulting in a lower than average monsoon rainfall this summer. However, the key producing state of Maharashtra started its harvest early this year in a bid to boost supplies for the festival season. In late summer, domestic prices reached a record high on expectations of a shortage. The early start does not necessarily mean an increase in output for the year. Rabobank is forecasting Brazil’s center-south sugar production to be up 13.9% at 42.6 million metric tons in 2027/28, as this year’s ample moisture, which has pulled production down for 2026/27, is expected to boost the cane crop when harvest begins next April. In the meantime, above average rainfall has pulled output down this year, and more rain in the forecast may bring about an early end to this year’s harvest.
COFFEE
December Coffee was slightly higher early Thursday but in the vicinity of Wednesday’s low. With the recent collapse in the Brazilian currency, there seem to be increasing expectations for a surge in Brazilian exports, with excess supply finally making it into exchange stocks. ICE certified arabica stocks were unchanged on Wednesday at 220,379 bags, their lowest levels since September 15 (when they reached a 26-year low). Rabobank projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee exports at 42-45 million bags, versus 38.5 million bags in 2025/26. The Brazilian real was slightly higher early Thursday but still holding most of its declines from last week, which should encourage Brazilian exports. On the bullish side, Sucafina projected combined coffee production from Central America and Mexico to fall below 18 million bags for the 2026/27 marketing year, down 9.3% from 2025/26, blaming weather problems in the first half of 2026 and the fact that this is an off-year in arabica’s biennial cycle. Uganda’s coffee exports in totaled 735,435 bags in October, down 13% from October 2025. World Weather Inc. expects showers and thunderstorms to begin ramping today and Friday in Brazil’s growing areas, with generalized rain Saturday through Monday, with another round next Tuesday-Thursday that should be good for cherry development. Vietnam’s domestic (robusta) coffee prices are under pressure this week with the advance in their harvest.
COCOA
December Cocoa fell to its lowest level since October 1 early Thursday, the day the market put in a spike low. The market saw a rally on Wednesday on lowered expectations for upcoming global output, as El Nino is expected to bring drier than normal conditions to west Africa and excessive rains to Ecuador that could damage their upcoming crops. Near term supplies appear ample. After a one-day decline, ICE cocoa stocks jumped 26,068 bags on Wednesday to 3.725 million, their highest since May 21, 2024. Chocolate makers are blaming high cocoa prices for disappointing earnings and slow growth. Current prices at around $5200 per metric ton, while nowhere near the record $13,000 from 2024, are still well above the all-time high of $3900 that existed prior to 2023. Given the ample supply currently and the relatively high prices historically, the market may already be is girded for a drop in production this year.
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