Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Heavy rains across the already saturated central and eastern belt are lifting bean prices slightly this morning, as additional storms are expected this week over Iowa and southern Illinois. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour begins today and will encounter muddy conditions from Iowa eastward through Ohio.
SOYBEAN MEAL
The meal market is starting the week on a positive note, with strength in beans and anticipation of the NOPA July crush report later today. July crush is expected at 221.5 million bushels, up from 214.3 million in June, and bean oil stocks are anticipated at 1.450 billion pounds, down from 1.501 billion in June. Mid-August is the peak of the seasonal maintenance downtime season for soy processors, but US cash meal premiums have been steady lately.
CORN
Strong action in the corn market Friday to finish out the week, along with heavy rains across parts of the Midwest over the weekend, is giving the market a slightly higher start this morning. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour will encounter muddy conditions in the eastern belt today after more heavy rain over the weekend and is expected to find tipback in the western areas and flooding in the east. Black Sea region attacks continued over the weekend.
WHEAT
The market is under moderate pressure this morning after making a new monthly high overnight. Surprise rains overnight moved across the Oklahoma Panhandle, far south central Kansas, and northwest Oklahoma, which saw the best rains in weeks. Much more will be needed to recharge soil moisture before fall seeding can begin. The heat dome will remain centered over the southern Plains for the next 2 weeks.
CATTLE
It was a tough week for the cattle market, with October live cattle hitting its lowest price level since early December last year amid weak cash trade and Tyson beef plant closures. But the market recovered well off the lows on Friday, which may prompt a higher open this morning.
HOGS
October hogs hit a new low for the month on Friday, and open interest jumped by a little more than 2,100 contracts. The trend remains lower, and the bears remain in control. Price pressure may continue on bearish seasonals and weak technicals. Cash trade was weak, down $4.07 from Thursday. Cutout was higher Friday, and last week’s pork production increased from the prior week. The cash index was near steady, hovering near a one-month low.
MILK CLASS III
September Class III milk finished last week with a moderate gain after reaching a 1 1/2-week high on Friday.
CRUDE OIL
October Crude Oil extended Monday’s rally early Tuesday and was close to filling a gap left over from the open on July 27. The lack of negotiations towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with both Iran and the US upping their rhetoric on Monday, and the end of the official cease fire from the Memorandum of Understanding from June has elevated concerns about supply.
NATURAL GAS
October Natural Gas higher early Tuesday as the market seemed to reject its lower move on Monday that avoided a test of the August 7 low at 2.668. US output remains strong, with LSEG putting lower 48 states production at 111.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, up from a record 110.7 bcfd in July.
DOLLAR INDEX
The USD index is little changed at 99.66. The overnight rise in oil prices and Treasury yields are offering the dollar some support alongside elevated risk premium from a lack of progress on the US-Iran front. The broad implication is that the dollar’s near-term weakness remains tied to Fed repricing, but renewed safe-haven flows from the Middle East are beginning to cap further downside.
PRECIOUS METALS
December gold contracts are fell lower overnight to near $4,440 level as gains in oil prices and Treasury yields weighed on the metal. Iran said it would shift to a “fully offensive” military posture, while the US ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire between the two countries, keeping risk premium and inflationary worries elevated.
Copper prices on the LME eased overnight as LME inventories climbed, leaving the market to focus on weak data from China. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME was down 0.6% at $14,075, while COMEX prices fell 1% to $6.54.
EQUITIES
Equity index futures were lower overnight, with the Nasdaq leading a risk-off pullback amid the expiry of the US-Iran ceasefire. Despite rising to a two-week high today, the VIX is near its lowest level of 2026, indicating unusually low demand for S&P 500 downside protection and reinforcing already-easy financial conditions.
INTEREST RATES
Yields are modestly higher across the curve, but kept a narrow range overnight. The 30-year Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since 2007; the 10-year yield is around 4.74%. The selloff in long-duration government bonds is being driven by Brent holding around $91bbl and rising Iran-war escalation risk resulting in traders asking for more compensation for Treasury duration given large US financing needs and recent long-end auction sensitivity.
COCOA
December Cocoa was lower early Tuesday, following Monday’s move to its highest level since August 5. The market has been in a sideways pattern for the past month and a half as it ways generally favorable growing conditions in west Africa against the possibility that the “Super El Nino” will cause problems with the upcoming crops. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters said the below-average rainfall last week mixed with lengthy sunny spells in most of the nation’s growing regions have sparked optimism for the main crop, which runs from September-to-February
COFFEE
December Coffee was near unchanged early Tuesday after a brief rally on Monday that came up short of taking out last week’s highs. The Brazilian arabica harvest progress is behind year ago levels, but it is advancing. Safras & Mercado reported last week that Brazil had completed 86% of expected arabica production versus 95% at this point last year.
COTTON
December Cotton was higher for the third straight session early Tuesday and reached its highest level since May 14. Dry conditions in key US growing areas are raising concerns about upcoming production, and those concerns are were supported by the weekly Crop Progress report released late Monday.
SUGAR
October Sugar shot higher early Tuesday to reach its highest level since May 2025. A report from Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry put Center-South sugar production at 3 million metric tons in the second half of July, -17% from the same period last year. Cane crushing was -8.4% from year ago to 46.08 million tons. Ethanol production was +2.8% to 2.39 billion liters.
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