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Global Cocoa Production Declining?

COCOA FUTURES

July cocoa saw an abrupt change in fortune as it continued to build on early strength to post a sizable gain yesterday that broke a 3-session losing streak. Nigeria’s April cocoa exports were more than 60% below last year’s total, which gave a boost to cocoa prices as that reflect tight near-term West African supplies.

COFFEE FUTURES

Coffee prices have regained more than 13.00 cents in value over the past 2 days and are within striking distance of going into the holiday weekend at their highest levels since mid-April. While near-term demand remains a concern, coffee continues to find support from bullish supply developments. Updated forecasts are calling for a shift back towards drier weather over Brazil’s major Arabica growing regions, and that has boosted coffee prices this week.

COTTON FUTURES

July cotton closed sharply lower yesterday, but only a few ticks lower than Wednesday’s low. The market has filled a gap from April 27 a couple of times this week, but it has not moved below there to any degree. December cotton closed only slightly lower after rallying back from a steeper selloff earlier in the session. The weekly US Drought Monitor reported that a large part of Oklahoma and parts of Texas and Louisiana were inundated with several inches of rain, over 6 inches in places.

SUGAR FUTURES

Sugar prices are on a 4-session losing streak and are at the bottom end of their late May consolidation zone. While it has received carryover support from key outside markets, sugar may need to receive fresh bullish supply news in order to sustain upside momentum. Brazil’s lower house passed a law putting a “cap” on state-level taxes for fuel, which is likely to reduce the costs for Brazilian gasoline.

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