Ag Markets Mixed as Feed Grains Rebound

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Mixed trade across the Ag space this AM as feed grains rebound from Friday’s selloff while the soybean complex is mixed.  With Federal Govt. offices closed in observation of Columbus/Indigenous Peoples Holiday, export inspections and the weekly crop progress/conditions reports are delayed until tomorrow.  Energy prices are mixed with spot WTI crude oil up $1.15 per barrel at $93.00, spot RBOB is up $.01 per gallon while HO is off $.05.  Shortly after Pres. Trump announced there was an energy ceasefire between Ukraine/Russia, Ukraine Pres. Zelenskyy claimed Russia violated the agreement.  Tensions in the Persian Gulf remain elevated after Pres. Trump suggested the US would join Saudi Arabia in its fight against Houthi rebels after another deadly attack on Riyadh’s airport.  Remnants of Hurricane Isaias brought widespread rains to the SE US, otherwise harvest was wide open across the central Midwest.  A narrow, but heavy line of showers is expected to pull from the SW plains into the central Midwest by mid-week, slowing harvest progress.  The SE US will continue to dry out.  Week 2 of the outlook remains favorable for harvest.  Brazil saw heavy rain in the SE while 100+ degree temps across Mato Grosso.  Isolated flooding in S. Brazil.  Cooler than normal temperatures across Argentina and the southern half of Brazil this week while rains continue to favor the interior south of Brazil.

Corn: 

Dec-26 is up $.02 at $4.81 ¾ holding within Friday’s huge range.  Resistance above the market is at its 100-day MA of $4.84 ¾.  Friday’s CFTC data showed MM’s were net sellers of just over 60k contracts, reducing their long holdings to 317k.  After huge selling on Friday, I estimate that long position is back under 238k contracts, a 2-month low.  Many remain skeptical of the USDA 3.5 bpa increase in the Ave. corn yield to 181.2 bpa, particularly in the WCB following record heat this summer.  Completely baffling is NE where yields shot up 11 bpa to 188 bpa.  Ear count data across all acres in the state was up 1,700 to 26,700 ears per acre while irrigated acres were down 350 to 28,700 and non-irrigated acres were down 300 to 24,250.  What other acres are left to count to raise the overall ear count ?

Soybeans: 

Nov-26 beans are $.04 ½ lower at $12.87 ½, Dec-26 meal is down $2.20 at $363.40 while Dec-26 oil is up 57 points at 68.59 lb.  Support for Nov-26 soybeans is at its 50-day MA at $12.68.  Crush margins are up another $.05 to $2.66 ½ bu.  Friday’s CFTC data showed MM’s were net buyers of 10.5k contracts of soybeans, 11.6k contracts of oil while selling 612 contracts of meal extending their combined long position to a record 558k contracts, which is likely down to around 535k after Friday’s close.  Chinese purchases have slowed since late Sept-26 which we estimate are very close to 15 mmt.  Patria AgroNegocios reports Brazilian plantings are at a record pace at 20%, vs. 13% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 11.6%.  US harvest is likely approaching 50%.  Malaysian palm oil stocks surged 24.5% in Sept. to a record 3.51 mmt as production rose 16.5% to 2.12 mmt.

Wheat: 

Prices are steady to slightly higher.  CGO Dec-26 is up $.01 $6.72, Dec-26 KC is up  $.01 ¼ at $7.20 ½ while Dec-26 MIAX is $.02 higher at $6.97 ¼, all holding within Friday’s range.  Baltic countries are urging the EU to block the movement of Russian grain through the region to access ports along the Baltic Sea.  APK-Inform raised Ukraine’s 2026 production forecast .5 mmt to 25.5 mmt while lowering their grain export forecast 6.5% to 31.7 mmt.  MM’s were net sellers of 19k contracts combined across the 3 classes of wheat, reducing their net-long position to only 6k contracts, the smallest in 3 months.

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