ADMIS News
SUGAR
After inching lower earlier in the session, March Sugar reversed higher Monday and took back mor than 60% of its decline from last Wednesday’s contract high. Ongoing concerns about rains delaying harvest and reducing output in Brazil and a lack of rain hurting crops in India, Europe and possibly Thailand continue to provide underlying support. Global production forecasts have been heading lower, and expectations appear to be leaning towards further reductions ahead, as the super El Nino is not expected to peak until November. On the other hand, the fund net long is close to a record high, which leaves the market vulnerable to long liquidation selling. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service recently put 2026/27 production in India at 29.5 million metric tons versus a previous forecast of 33.6 million, and Brazilian production at 42.2 million metric tons versus 42.5 million previously, which supported previous reports of lower production from those two countries. Friday’s USDA report put US 2026/27 sugar production in at 8.76 million short tons, down 71,000 from the September estimate and the lowest since 2019/20. Beet production was lowered to 4.74 million tons from 4.77 million in September, and cane was lowered to 4.03 million from 4.07.
COFFEE
December Coffee was near unchanged early Monday after falling to its lowest level since October 1 earlier in the session. Strong exports from Brazil sparked a selloff from near contract highs in late August into mid-late September, and the market may be poised to resume the downtrend now that it has corrected 50% of that decline. Cecafe said on Friday that Brazil exported 3.58 million bags of green coffee in September, up 3.2% from September 2025. Arabica exports totaled 2.77 million bags, down 7% from a year ago, and robusta shipments totaled 814,000, up 65%. Last week, Brazilian government data this week showed the nation exported 3.93 million bags of green coffee in September, the highest in 20 months and up 20.4% from September 2025. World Weather Inc. reported little change in coffee conditions around the world over the weekend, mentioning that there is still a big need for rain in Indonesia, Southern India and portions of Central Africa. Timely rain is expected to continue in Brazil, which should be beneficial for the 2027 crops. ICE certified arabica stocks were down 250 bags on Friday to 252,006, their lowest since September 17. Stocks fell 8,233 bags last week.
COTTON
Friday’s USDA supply/demand report was bearish against expectations, with US production and ending stocks forecasts for 2026/27 both increasing from the September estimates versus expectations for declines, but the market closed higher on the session and was holding those gains early Monday. World production and ending stocks also increased counter to expectations. US and world stocks/use ratio were up from the September estimates but were still down from year ago and five-year average numbers. Rainfall from Hurricane Isaias likely interrupted harvest and caused some fiber quality issues in the southeastern states. Hurricane Rachel may have also affected cotton areas in southern California, Arizona, and northwestern Mexico. Moisture heading into Texas this week may slow harvest there. The dollar was back approaching 2 1/2-year highs early Monday, which does not help US export prospects.
COCOA
December Cocoa was higher early Monday, but the market was trading in a relatively wide range outside Friday’s range. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals totaled 23,000 metric tons for the week ending October 11 versus 48,000 for the same week last year. By virtue of Ivory Coast starting their marketing year one month earlier than usual on September 1, cumulative arrivals have reached 77,500 tons versus 48,000 at this point last year. Despite the early start it is slow compared to the five year average for this point in the season of 111,000 tons. World Weather Inc. noted that net drying occurred in Ivory Coast and Ghana over the weekend due rains being sporadic and light. This is problematic for Ivory Coast and southwestern Ghana, which have seen below normal rainfall for the past couple of months, and this pattern is expected to continue over the next week to ten days. Third-quarter grind data for Europe, Asia and North America are due to be released on Thursday, and this will impact estimates for 2025/26 ending stocks. Ivorian authorities seized 42 tons of cocoa bound for Ghana on October 4, which adds to concerns about smuggling resulting from the higher official Ghanan official price relative to Ivory Coast. ICE cocoa stocks increased 5,833 bags on Friday to 3.553 million after reaching their highest level since June 5, 2024 on Thursday. Stocks increased by 52,844 bags last week.
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