Ghana Lowers Crop Expectations

COCOA

September Cocoa was sharply higher early Friday on declining expectations for West African production. Ghana’s cocoa regulator COCOBOD expects the nation’s output to fall by at least 16% in the 2026/27 season. They blame likelihood of El Nino conditions, the excessive amounts of rain in May and June this year, and the physiological pattern of the cocoa tree, which tends to alternate between higher- and lower-yield years. They also noted a low cherelle load (the number of small pods that survive to maturity ) in the Western and Western North regions. Ivory Coast’s output was already forecast to be down more than 10% in 2026/27. World Weather Inc. expects rain to increase in West Africa next week.  All areas should be impacted by rain multiple times, with light to moderate rain most common and locally heavy on occasion. They believe crops should benefit from the moisture. Ivory Coast farmers this week were upbeat on the recent sunny spells, as too much cloudy weather can cause problems with disease.

SUGAR

Brazilian consultancy Pecege put the nation’s 2026/27 cane crop at 642 million metric tons, which would be close to a record level. Brazil cane areas are expected to be mostly dry through Friday, which is good weather for harvest. Harvest slowed in June due to excessive rainfall. US cane and beet sugar demand increased 0.6% in the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year that started in October, according to a report by U.S. rural lender CoBank that was based on compiled data from USDA. The growth in consumption tracks US population, which  increased of 0.5% in 2025. This runs counter to expectations for declines in sugar consumption because of the popularity of GLP-1 drugs. Consumption of high-fructose sweeteners declined. World Weather Inc. reports that India’s monsoon continues to perform well enough to support most summer crops in the central, east and north, and they said traders should be wary of comments about large moisture deficits in India’s production areas. The maintain that “normal” rainfall in recent years has become much more than needed to support crops and that “below normal” precipitation does not necessarily mean a cut into production, especially with soil moisture is rated favorably as it is today. They added however that southern India does have a dryness problem and that region needs to be closely monitored.

COFFEE

December Coffee saw choppy action early Friday as the market weighed the possibility that a drier pattern in Brazil would allow the harvest to continue to advance. Brazil’s largest coffee co-operative said this week its farmers had harvested 58.3% of their crop as of July 24, up from 47.3% a week earlier but still down from 67.1% for this point last year. Heavy rains in June slowed the harvest and caused some beans to fall to the ground. World Weather Inc. says a drier and warmer bias should dominate the Brazil’s coffee areas for another week, but there is potential for rain late next week and into the following weekend. Temperatures will be warm enough to minimize any potential for threatening cold into August 10. The Central Highlands and northern Vietnam are expected to see periodic rain and thunderstorms through the next week, enough to benefit most production areas. Southern Indonesia is still dealing with poor rainfall and dryness. Exchange stocks are approaching critically low levels.

COTTON

December Cotton was higher early Friday, following through on Thursday’s gains off a weaker dollar and a strong export sales report. US cotton export sales for the week ending July 23 came in at 29,719 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 352,447 for 2026/27 for a total of 382,166. This was up from 67,433 the previous week and the highest since June 4 when they reached a record 505,721. There is only one week left in the 2025/26 marketing year. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 12.032 million bales, up from 11.768 million at this time last year but below the five-year average of 14.112 million.  Sales have reached 107% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 114% for this point in the marketing year. Shipments totaled 233,795 bales, down from 276,313 the previous week. The largest buyer was Vietnam at 259,642 for old and new crops combined. The dollar sold off sharply on Thursday to its lowest level since mid-June after the Fed left interest rates unchanged this week, and this lent support to cotton on ideas it makes US exports more competitive on the global market.

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